By Daryl G. Kimball
Beginning Jan. 20, U.S. nuclear weapons policy can and must change. The U.S.-Soviet standoff that gave rise to tens of thousands of nuclear weapons is over, but the policies developed to justify their possession and potential use remain largely the same.
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Reassessing the Role of Nuclear Weapons
Engagement with Russia: Managing Risks, Repairing Rifts
By John Steinbruner
The U.S. security relationship with Russia is a matter that is more significant to the U.S. government and the American people than was apparent during the presidential election. Elections are primarily about attitudes. The exercise of power is about the management of consequences.
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Drawing a Bright Redline: Forestalling Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East
By Mark Fitzpatrick
If Iran goes nuclear, so too will more of its neighbors, or so says the established wisdom.
It is a logical deduction given the extent to which Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey feel a need to maintain power and political parity with Iran and the security concerns that Persian Gulf countries already harbor about the would-be regional hegemon to their northeast. If any of them follow Iran or if Israel abandons its policy of nuclear opacity, the domino effect could spread further and include counties, such as Algeria, that have sparked proliferation concerns in the past.
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Dealing With North Korea: “Diplomatic Warfare” Ahead
By Joel S. Wit
U.S. presidents have struggled with the challenges posed by a hostile North Korea since the end of the Korean War and with the dangers of a nuclear North since the mid-1980s. The diplomatic struggle over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program has had many ups and downs, from the near outbreak of a second war in 1994 to an agreement a few months later to end the nuclear program, from the prospect of a visit to Pyongyang by President Bill Clinton in 2000 to the breakdown of the 1994 agreement in 2002 and the North Korean nuclear test in 2006, from limited arrangements over the past few years that have constrained Pyongyang’s plutonium production program to recent disputes over verification.
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Chinese-U.S. Strategic Affairs: Dangerous Dynamism
By Christopher P. Twomey
Many aspects of the Chinese-U.S. relationship are mutually beneficial: some $400 billion in trade, bilateral military exchanges, and Beijing’s increasingly constructive diplomatic role. There are other grounds for concern. Each side’s militaries view the other as a potential adversary and increasingly make plans and structure their forces with that in mind.
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Stepping Back from the Brink: Avoiding a Nuclear March of Folly in South Asia
By Zachary Davis
Historian Barbara Tuchman described the trail of misperceptions and bad decisions that led to mankind's worst self-imposed disasters as a "March of Folly." Now is the time for India and Pakistan to take steps to ensure that another war or crisis between them does not result in a nuclear exchange that destroys both societies.
The prospects for rolling back India's or Pakistan's nuclear weapons programs during the Obama administration are zero. Nevertheless, the administration can help reduce the risk of nuclear war in South Asia. There is a growing recognition by New Delhi and Islamabad that a crisis, triggered by events such as the November terrorist attack in Mumbai, could escalate out of control and result in an unintended nuclear exchange. The Kargil crisis in 1999 and the 2002 cross-border attack on the Indian parliament brought the two nuclear rivals to the brink of war. Having survived two Cuban missile crises of their own, it is time India and Pakistan take steps to manage the risks inherent in their tense nuclear relationship.
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EU Issues Space Code of Conduct
By Jeff Abramson
In December, the European Union issued a draft code of conduct for outer space activities that skirted many thorny issues that have plagued prior international efforts to prevent an arms race in outer space. Designed to encompass civilian and military uses of space, key features of the text include a voluntary commitment to refrain from intentionally harming space objects, measures to control and mitigate space debris, and mechanisms for cooperation and consultation. The EU is now expected to hold consultations to revise the text so that it is acceptable to more countries.
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BWC States Address Safety, Security Measures
By Oliver Meier
At a Dec. 1-5 meeting, states-parties to the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) discussed steps to improve the safety and security of biological agents as well as oversight mechanisms to prevent the misuse of biotechnology for hostile purposes.
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States Approve OPCW Budget, Not Report
By Oliver Meier
A Dec. 2-5 meeting in The Hague of Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) states-parties failed to adopt a consensus final report but agreed on a budget for 2009 and modest measures to reform the treaty's verification system.
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Report Predicts Future Global Arms Trends
By Kirsten McNeil
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) released its fourth Global Trends report on Nov. 20, timed to correspond every four years to the period of transition between presidential administrations. Chaired by Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis Thomas Fingar, the NIC is within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which sits atop the sprawling U.S. intelligence community. The "Global Trends 2025" report aims to identify key strategic drivers in the global system that could shape the issues facing the new administration and to guide policymakers toward a broad view of the world.
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Landmine Ban Deadline Extended
By Jeff Abramson
At the ninth meeting of states-parties to the 1997 Mine Ban Convention, also referred to as the Ottawa Convention, in November 2008, 15 countries requested and received extensions to their 2009 demining deadlines. The United Kingdom received a 10-year extension, the maximum possible, and agreed to "proceed immediately with the clearance of three mined areas" and to provide a detailed update and demining plan by June 30, 2010. Prior to the extension, the country had been criticized for failing to take action to clear mine-impacted areas of the Falkland Islands, which are also claimed by Argentina. Clearance deadline extensions of varying lengths were also granted to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Chad, Croatia, Denmark, Ecuador, Jordan, Mozambique, Nicaragua, Peru, Senegal, Thailand, Venezuela, Yemen, and Zimbabwe.
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Countries Sign Cluster Munitions Convention
By Jeff Abramson
During a December ceremony in Oslo, 94 countries signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), including many western European countries that have stockpiled and produced the weapons. Unexpectedly, Afghanistan also agreed to the treaty, breaking with the United States, which reiterated its preference for a separate process that would recognize greater military utility for cluster munitions while establishing some limits on their use. As expected, other major producers and stockpilers, including China, India, Israel, Pakistan, and Russia, did not sign the treaty.
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WMD Commission Issues Findings
By Daniel Arnaudo
On Dec. 3, a congressionally mandated commission released a report offering 15 recommendations to help the U.S. government improve its ability to prevent and respond to threats of biological and nuclear terrorism. Drawing even more attention and criticism than the recommendations, however, was the commission’s prediction that terrorists were likely to carry out an attack with biological or nuclear weapons somewhere in the world within the next five years.
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Six-Party Talks Stall Over Sampling
By Peter Crail
The latest round of six-way talks aimed at denuclearizing North Korea ended Dec. 11 in stalemate as the parties continued to disagree on the issue of verifying North Korea's nuclear activities. The four days of talks are expected to have marked the last formal gathering of the six parties (China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States) in which the Bush administration participated.
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Russia, India Ink Nuke Cooperation Deal
By Peter Crail
During a Dec. 5 visit by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to
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Test Hit, Diplomatic Flop for U.S. Missile Defense
By Wade Boese
The Bush administration scored a hit in a recent test of a U.S.-based strategic anti-missile system, but struck out in talks to ease Russian opposition to the planned stationing of a similar system in Europe. The lead U.S. negotiator said the Kremlin had shifted its attention to preparing for the Obama administration.
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U.S. Ratifies Additional Protocol
By Peter Crail
President George W. Bush Dec. 30 signed the instrument of ratification for a U.S. additional protocol to its International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards agreement. Although the United States is a nuclear-weapon state under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and is not required to adopt IAEA safeguards, it has done so as a confidence-building measure. Washington has also pressed for the universal application of the 1997 Model Additional Protocol in order to better detect and deter illicit nuclear activities.
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Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Formed
By Manasi Kakatkar and Miles A. Pomper
Kazakhstan ratified a treaty establishing the Central Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ) Dec. 11, allowing it to enter into force in early 2009. Breaking from typical practice, the treaty lacks the endorsement of three of the five official nuclear-weapon states. France, the United Kingdom, and the United States have refused to lend their support, citing concerns that Russia might be able to deploy nuclear weapons in the zone.
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Compliance Report Delays Continue
By Peter Crail
One of the stated cornerstones of the Bush administration’s approach to arms control and nonproliferation issues has been an increased emphasis on ensuring that other countries comply with their arms control and nonproliferation agreements.
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EU Pledges Funds for IAEA Fuel Bank
By Miles A. Pomper
The European Union Dec. 8 pledged 25 million euros (about $33 million) toward the establishment of a nuclear fuel bank under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The EU contribution means that supporters have come close to meeting the initial financial requirements set down by a nongovernmental organization and IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei for establishing the fuel reserve.
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