Readers Forum - Arms Control Today

March 2010

2010-03-03T15:24:00.000-05:00

Comment below on any article in the January-February 2010 edition of Arms Control Today. At the start of your comment, please indicate the article title and author to which you are responding.

January-February 2010

2010-01-12T22:08:00.001-05:00

Comment below on any article in the January-February 2010 edition of Arms Control Today. At the start of your comment, please indicate the article title and author to which you are responding.

A New START

2009-12-04T11:44:00.001-05:00

By Daryl Kimball

After eight rounds of talks over nine months, U.S. and Russian negotiators are expected to complete work this month on a new strategic nuclear arms reduction deal that would replace the highly successful 1991 START, which expires Dec. 5.

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Key CFE Obstacles are Not "Subregional"

2009-12-04T11:42:00.000-05:00

By Peter Perenyi

Wolfgang Zellner’s thoughtful article (“Can This Treaty Be Saved? Breaking the Stalemate on Conventional Forces in Europe,” September 2009) reminds us of the contribution to European security that could result from resolving the impasse over the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. However, the article’s analysis of contentious issues in discussions of the treaty is mistaken in distinguishing between “Euro-strategic” issues, including NATO enlargement and its effect on the European conventional force balance, and two ostensibly “subregional” issues. The distinction has important implications for policy decisions on how to approach the impasse and craft solutions to it.

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Iran's Growing Weapons Capability and Its Impact on Negotiations

2009-12-04T11:40:00.001-05:00

By David Albright and Jacqueline Shire

The crisis over Iran’s growing nuclear weapons capabilities is rapidly reaching a critical point. Recent developments do not bode well for the prospect of successful negotiations that can end concerns about

Iran

’s nuclear program, at least in the short term.

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Iran and the Problem of Tactical Myopia

2009-12-04T11:37:00.000-05:00

Jim Walsh, Thomas Pickering, and William Luers

It seems that every conversation about Iran is a conversation about sanctions. Even in the midst of negotiations, the talk is as likely to be about the sanctions that might follow as it is about the negotiation itself. This is an odd and unfortunate state of affairs.

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Using Stronger Sanctions to Increase Negotiating Leverage with Iran

2009-12-04T11:35:00.001-05:00

By Orde F. Kittrie

Six days after his inauguration, President Barack Obama declared that “if countries like

Iran

are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” Over the 10 months since then, the Obama administration has followed up on the January 26 declaration with numerous friendly gestures to the Iranian regime.

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Winning on Ballisitic Missiles but Losing on Cruise: The Missile Proliferation Battle

2009-12-04T11:32:00.000-05:00

By Dennis M. Gormley

Because Europe and the U.S. forces based there face a near-term ballistic missile threat, President Barack Obama’s decision to abandon a Bush-era missile defense plan makes good sense. In contrast to President George W. Bush’s approach, which focused primarily on a few potential ICBMs, Obama’s is more suited to

Iran

’s growing arsenal of medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

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German Nuclear Stance Stirs Debate

2009-12-04T11:28:00.001-05:00

By Oliver Meier

The German government’s explicit support for the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Germany has triggered a debate within NATO and revealed differences among

Germany

’s governing parties, official statements and comments during interviews suggest. NATO allies will now have to debate the German initiative and the future of U.S. nuclear deployments in Europe during the current review of NATO’s Strategic Concept.

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U.S., Russia Poised for Arsenal Cuts

2009-12-04T11:26:00.001-05:00

By Tom Z. Collina

President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Nov. 15 they expect to sign a new arms control treaty to replace START by the end of December.

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Russia Plans Changes to Military Doctrine

2009-12-04T11:25:00.002-05:00

By Luke Champlin and Volha Charnysh

Russia is planning to revise its military doctrine, last updated in 2000, according to a series of statements from Russia’s National Security Council. The draft, titled “The New Face of the Russian Armed Forces Until 2030,” is expected to be presented to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev for approval by the end of the year.

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Scientists See Stockpile Lasting for Decades

2009-12-04T11:23:00.000-05:00

By Tom Z. Collina

Weighing in on a long-simmering debate within the U.S. government, an influential panel of scientists has found “no evidence” that extending the lives of existing U.S. nuclear weapons leads to reduced confidence that the weapons will work. The panel, known as JASON, found that the “[l]ifetimes of today’s nuclear warheads could be extended for decades, with no anticipated loss in confidence,” according to an unclassified summary of the report.

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IAEA Rebukes Iran Over Secret Facility

2009-12-04T11:22:00.000-05:00

By Peter Crail

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors last month called on

Iran

to stop constructing a previously secret uranium-enrichment facility revealed in September. The Nov. 27 resolution, which came during the board’s quarterly meeting in

Vienna

, was the governors’ first on

Iran

in nearly four years.

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IAEA Disputes Syrian Uranium Claims

2009-12-04T11:20:00.001-05:00

By Peter Crail

An analysis by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) disputed Syria’s explanation for the presence of man-made uranium particles at a reactor in Damascus, according to a Nov. 16 agency report. The results of environmental sampling carried out at the reactor in August 2008 “do not support Syria’s earlier explanation for the origin and presence of the particles,” the report said.

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U.S. Takes New Stance on Some Issues at UN

2009-12-04T11:18:00.000-05:00

By Cole Harvey

The Obama administration’s voting record this year at the First Committee of the UN General Assembly marked a departure from the Bush administration in several key ballots. In other votes, however, the new administration’s vote was the same as its predecessor’s.

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Work on Cluster Munitions Extended Again

2009-12-04T11:17:00.000-05:00

By Jeff Abramson

In what has now become an annual occurrence, delegates to a meeting of states-parties to the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) agreed in November to continue work on proposals specifically addressing cluster munitions after failing to reach consensus during the past year. Meanwhile, a different treaty on the weapons grew closer to the number of ratifying states needed for its entry into force, drawing into question the role of future CCW efforts on the topic.

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Countries Ban Investment in Cluster Munitions

2009-12-04T11:14:00.001-05:00

By Andrew Fisher

Pursuing what some say is a logical step required for the implementation of the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), several countries have taken action at the national level by barring investment in companies that produce cluster munitions.

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U.S. to Send Senior Envoy to Pyongyang

2009-12-04T11:11:00.002-05:00

By Peter Crail

The United States has agreed to send a senior diplomat to Pyongyang Dec. 8 for bilateral discussions with North Korea to return that country to multilateral talks on denuclearization, U.S. officials announced last month. The announcement came just before President Barack Obama made his first trip to Asia Nov. 12-19. The North Korean nuclear issue was high on the agenda in meetings with leaders in the region,

U.S.

officials said.

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Why We Don't Need To Resume Nuclear Testing: A Reply to Senator Jon Kyl

2009-11-06T10:01:00.000-05:00

By Daryl G. Kimball

Twenty years ago this month, the Berlin Wall came down, hastening the end of the Cold War. Less than three years later, Moscow and Washington agreed to halt nuclear testing. In 1996, after more than 2,000 nuclear test explosions, the world’s nations concluded the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in order to prevent proliferation and help end the nuclear arms race.

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An Interview With Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Ellen Tauscher

2009-11-06T09:59:00.001-05:00

Interviewed by Daniel Horner and Tom Z. Collina

Ellen Tauscher was sworn in June 27 as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security. Before that, she represented her northern California district for 13 years in the House, where she served on the Armed Services Committee. From 2007, she chaired the panel’s Strategic Forces Subcommittee.

Arms Control Today spoke with Tauscher in her office October 21. The interview covered a range of issues in Tauscher’s portfolio, from strategic arms control to plans for an international fuel bank.

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The Role of Nuclear Weapons: Japan, the U.S., and “Sole Purpose”

2009-11-06T09:57:00.000-05:00

By Masa Takubo

On September 22, a day before President Barack Obama met with Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama in New York, 13 nongovernmental U.S. security experts released an open letter calling on the two leaders “to support a U.S. policy declaring that the only purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter, and if necessary respond to, the use of nuclear weapons by other countries.”[1]

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Weighing the Case For a Convention to Limit Cyberwarfare

2009-11-06T09:56:00.000-05:00

By David Elliott

Cyberattack is emerging as a new type of nonlethal weapon that can cause substantial harm to society, especially when used in its most advanced version by countries at war. It may be time to consider an international convention to limit the initiation of such use, particularly against targets that are part of critical national infrastructure and are basically civilian.

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Dismissing Doomsday

2009-11-06T09:54:00.000-05:00

Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism From Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda

Reviewed by Gerard DeGroot

Every year, I teach a course on the atom bomb. At the end of each semester, I ask my students to tell me at what point the world came closest to nuclear Armageddon. The answers are usually predictable: the Cuban missile crisis, the Yom Kippur War, the Indo-Pakistani conflict. One year, however, I got a very different response.

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News Analysis: Officials Air Views on Key Stockpile Issue

2009-11-06T09:51:00.001-05:00

By Tom Z. Collina and Daniel Horner

As the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) moves toward completion in the coming months, the Obama administration is grappling with a major question about the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Given the stated need to maintain the arsenal for the foreseeable future, can the United States reliably maintain existing warhead designs, or will the country eventually need new ones?

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Congress Funds Nonproliferation Work

2009-11-06T09:49:00.000-05:00

By Cole Harvey and Daniel Horner

Congress largely approved President Barack Obama’s nuclear nonproliferation budget, with some small adjustments, when both chambers approved the fiscal year 2010 energy and water development appropriations bill last month.

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UAE-U.S. Nuclear Pact Gets Green Light

2009-11-06T09:48:00.001-05:00

By Daniel Horner

The congressional review period for the U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ended Oct. 17 without action by Congress to block or add conditions to the pact. The expiration of the review period paves the way for the governments to exchange diplomatic notes to bring the agreement into force.

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OPCW Chooses New Director-General

2009-11-06T09:46:00.000-05:00

Oliver Meier and Daniel Horner

The Executive Council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) last month chose Ahmet Üzümcü of Turkey to succeed Rogelio Pfirter as the organization’s director-general.

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U.S. Supports Arms Trade Treaty Process

2009-11-06T09:45:00.001-05:00

By Jeff Abramson

The United States last month pledged its support for talks on a legally binding instrument to regulate the global trade of conventional arms, breaking with previous U.S. votes against the United Nations-led process. UN member states are now expected to approve a schedule that could see an arms trade treaty (ATT) negotiated in 2012.

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Arms Exports Fell in 2008, UN Data Say

2009-11-06T09:42:00.000-05:00

Jeff Abramson

After increasing to record levels in 2007, transfers of major weapons systems as well as small arms and light weapons dropped in 2008, according to voluntary reports submitted to the United Nations’ conventional arms registry.

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China Says N. Korea Wants Better Relations

2009-11-06T09:40:00.000-05:00

By Peter Crail

North Korea wants to return to multilateral denuclearization talks and improve relations with Japan, South Korea, and the United States, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said during an Oct. 10 press conference in Beijing.

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China, Russia Agree on Launch Notification

2009-11-06T09:39:00.001-05:00

By Luke Champlin

China and Russia signed an agreement Oct. 13 to notify each other of impending ballistic missile launches. The agreement was part of a large package of economic and political deals signed during Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s visit with his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao. Putin called the agreement “a very important step towards enhancing mutual trust and strengthening our strategic partnership,” according to Russia’s Interfax news agency.

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START Deadline Looms; Endgame Begins

2009-11-06T09:37:00.000-05:00

By Tom Collina

One month away from START’s Dec. 5 expiration date, it is unclear that a replacement treaty will be ready for signature by that time, comments by administration officials and nongovernmental observers suggest. After months of U.S.-Russian negotiations and high-level visits, major areas of disagreement remain, the experts said. The talks are entering a pivotal phase and may need presidential involvement to overcome the differences, the experts said.

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Iranian Response to LEU Fuel Deal Unclear

2009-11-06T09:32:00.001-05:00

By Peter Crail

Iran failed to respond formally in October to an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) proposal under which most of Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) would be converted to nuclear fuel abroad. The delayed response coincided with mixed messages from Iranian officials and state media regarding Iran’s approach to the arrangement and with vocal opposition to the proposal from political opponents of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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All Together Now

2009-10-06T10:35:00.002-04:00

By Daryl G. Kimball

Global problems require global solutions, along with effective leadership and cooperation. For years, as leading players have failed to agree on how to bolster the beleaguered nonproliferation system, the threats posed by nuclear weapons have become more complex and difficult to solve.

But in a welcome shift, President Barack Obama won UN Security Council backing last month for a practical and comprehensive action plan to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons. Whether this special Security Council meeting and Resolution 1887 mark a true turning point depends on the steps taken in the next few weeks and months. Nonetheless, it is a rare step forward that comes at a critical time.

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Getting to Zero Starts Here: Tactical Nuclear Weapons

2009-10-06T10:32:00.000-04:00

By Catherine M. Kelleher and Scott L. Warren

A critical debate on nuclear weapons is once again in the limelight. President Barack Obama has unequivocally, ambitiously, and repeatedly stated his ultimate vision of a world without nuclear weapons. Under the Obama policy, zero nuclear weapons is, for the first time in U.S. history, an operational, tangible U.S. policy goal and thus a measuring stick against which to judge a host of shorter-range, less ambitious initiatives or actions.

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Making a Mark in Space: An Analysis of Obama’s Options For a New U.S. Space Policy

2009-10-06T10:29:00.000-04:00

By Victoria Samson

The change of U.S. administrations creates the opportunity for a broad assessment of the country’s space policy, starting with some basic questions.

What should the goal of national space policies be? Are they trying to ensure freedom of action for certain states and not others? Does the definition of “freedom of action” need to be updated to reflect the increasing number of space actors? Should the focus be on establishing future cooperative efforts in space, or is space being preserved just for its own sake?

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Learning From the 1999 Vote on the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

2009-10-06T10:27:00.000-04:00

By Daryl G. Kimball

When President Bill Clinton described the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) as “the longest-sought, hardest fought prize in arms control history,” he was not exaggerating. In the face of international outrage over their rapid-fire pace of Cold War testing, U.S. and Soviet leaders attempted in 1958-1959 and again in 1963 to negotiate a comprehensive ban on all nuclear test explosions. They came close but were unable to agree on the details for inspections and had to settle for the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, which prohibited atmospheric testing. The United States, Russia, and other states conducted hundreds more nuclear tests underground, which enabled further arms racing and proliferation.

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Obama Shifts Gears on Missile Defense

2009-10-06T10:24:00.001-04:00

By Cole Harvey

The Obama administration announced Sept. 17 that it will not develop a planned missile interceptor field in Poland and radar facility in the Czech Republic, as envisioned by the Bush administration. Instead, the United States will implement a new missile defense program, designed around the Navy’s Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), to counter short- and medium-range Iranian missiles, according to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. In announcing the change, President Barack Obama said that the new missile defense architecture in Europe “will provide stronger, smarter, and swifter defenses of American forces and America’s allies” than the Bush-era plan.

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North Korea, U.S. Seen Preparing for Talks

2009-10-06T10:21:00.000-04:00

By Peter Crail

The United States is ready to hold direct talks with North Korea on denuclearization, potentially paving the way for the Obama administration’s first formal discussions with Pyongyang, U.S. officials said in September.

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Indian Scientist Triggers Debate on Testing

2009-10-06T09:48:00.000-04:00

By Daniel Horner

A leading Indian nuclear scientist has said the yield from India’s 1998 test of a thermonuclear device was less than expected and that the country should not close off the option of further tests.

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Nuclear Arms Resolution Passed at UN Summit

2009-10-06T09:44:00.001-04:00

By Cole Harvey

The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a U.S.-sponsored resolution seeking “to create the conditions for a world without nuclear weapons” Sept. 24, endorsing many of measures laid out in President Barack Obama’s April 5 speech inPrague. (See ACT, May 2009.) The resolution also lays the political groundwork for strengthening the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime and tightening nuclear export controls. It also demands that Iran and North Korea comply with their obligations under previous Security Council resolutions.

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Clinton Makes Case for CTBT at Conference

2009-10-06T09:42:00.000-04:00

By Meri Lugo

A global nuclear test ban would increase U.S. security because “as long as we are confronted with the prospect of nuclear testing by others, we will face the potential threat of newer, more powerful, and more sophisticated weapons that could cause damage beyond our imagination,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Sept. 24 in New York.

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Talks on Fuel Bank Stalled at IAEA

2009-10-06T09:38:00.001-04:00

By Daniel Horner and Oliver Meier

Plans to establish an international nuclear fuel bank, a key part of nonproliferation programs put forward by several world leaders, have failed to receive the support they need to start being put in place.

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U.S. Expands Lead in Shrinking Arms Market

2009-10-06T09:34:00.000-04:00

By Andrew Fisher

In the midst of a global recession that reduced the global demand for weapons, the United States managed to expand its share of worldwide arms agreements significantly in 2008, according to a September report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Last year, developing countries continued to be the most important markets for arms sales, the report said.In the midst of a global recession that reduced the global demand for weapons, the United States managed to expand its share of worldwide arms agreements significantly in 2008, according to a September report by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). Last year, developing countries continued to be the most important markets for arms sales, the report said.

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Russia Defends Struggling Missile Program

2009-10-06T09:32:00.001-04:00

By Luke Champlin

Russian leaders remain committed to the Bulava RSM-56 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) despite a number of high-profile test failures, a top military official said Aug. 26.

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Secret Iranian Enrichment Facility Revealed

2009-10-06T09:29:00.000-04:00

By Peter Crail

Iran has been constructing a second uranium-enrichment facility in secret, the leaders of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced during a Sept. 25 press briefing. In a statement delivered on behalf of the three countries and Germany, President Barack Obama said “the size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program.”

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IAEA’s Syria Probe Remains Stalled

2009-10-06T09:25:00.001-04:00

By Peter Crail and Anna Hood

Syria continues to refuse full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) investigation into allegations that it pursued a secret nuclear weapons program, according to an Aug. 28 IAEA report. Syria has not given the agency access to additional sites of interest or turned over sufficient information to explain the presence of undeclared uranium particles detected last year, the report said.

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In Memoriam: Edward M. Kennedy (1932-2009)

2009-10-06T09:17:00.002-04:00

By Christopher Paine

With the recent passing of Edward Moore Kennedy, the arms control community has lost its longest-serving and most stalwart champion in the U.S. Senate. Although he sponsored and supported numerous arms control efforts, including the nuclear freeze resolution, that influenced U.S. policy, the Massachusetts Democrat never fancied himself a nuclear arms control “expert.” The dehumanizing arms control lexicon of force exchange ratios, throw weights, and strategic stability held no appeal for him. He left mastery of this arcane discipline to others, recognizing it for what it was—at best a temporary mechanism for containing the frightening risks and soaring costs of the nuclear arms race, at worst a lulling deception that ignored the mounting dangers of the world’s nuclear predicament. Kennedy knew full well that the nuclear strategists and weapons scientists did not have the answers and that it was the task of political leaders to find a way to bridge the Cold War divide and set the world on a saner path toward nuclear disarmament.

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Change U.S. Nuclear Policy? Yes, We Can.

2009-09-04T15:11:00.000-04:00

By Daryl G. Kimball

As the administration of President Barack Obama works to complete the congressionally mandated Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) by early 2010, it is clear to most that yesterday’s nuclear doctrines are no longer appropriate for today’s realities.

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Building Up the Regime for Verifying the CTBT

2009-09-04T15:08:00.000-04:00

By Ambassador Tibor Tóth

Over the last decade, considerable progress has been made in building up the unique verification regime of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) to monitor the globe for nuclear explosions.

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Can This Treaty Be Saved? Breaking the Stalemate on Conventional Forces in Europe

2009-09-04T15:05:00.000-04:00

By Wolfgang Zellner

Overshadowed by more pressing issues—Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and global terrorism—European security relations with Russia have deteriorated dramatically since the late 1990s. Over the last 10 years, European security policy has been increasingly dominated by unilateral and frequently confrontational approaches.

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Breakthrough and Breakdown at the Conference on Disarmament: Assessing the Prospects for an FM(C)T

2009-09-04T15:01:00.000-04:00

By Paul Meyer

The May 29 adoption of a program of work by the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva marked the first time in 11 years that the 65-member body had taken such action. That step was a cause for celebration as it appeared to open the door to the negotiation of a treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

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Robert McNamara’s Logical Legacy

2009-09-04T14:57:00.000-04:00

By J. Peter Scoblic

When Robert S. McNamara, the former secretary of defense and so-called architect of the Vietnam War, died this summer at the age of 93, he left behind a fraught legacy.

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Burnishing Reagan’s Disarmament Credentials

2009-09-04T14:53:00.001-04:00

By Paul Boyer

The husband-and-wife team of Martin and Annelise Anderson has established a cottage industry of producing works enhancing Ronald Reagan’s image. The truly Herculean labors of the Andersons, who are based at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, have already given us Reagan in His Own Hand (2001), a selection of the future president’s radio talks; Reagan: A Life in Letters (2004); Reagan’s Path to Victory: The Shaping of Ronald Reagan’s Vision (2004); Stories in His Own Hand: The Everyday Wisdom of Ronald Reagan (2007); and Reagan in His Own Voice, a three-CD set of the radio talks.

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African NWFZ Treaty Enters Into Force

2009-09-04T12:30:00.000-04:00

By Cole Harvey

Burundi became the 28th country to ratify the 1996 Treaty of Pelindaba July 15, meeting the pact’s requirement for entry into force and creating a nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) in Africa. The treaty prohibits the possession, development, manufacture, testing, or deployment of nuclear weapons on the African continent and associated islands.

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Arms Collection Begins in Southern Sudan

2009-09-04T12:26:00.001-04:00

By Emma Ensign

Authorities in Sudan have begun a series of weapons collection programs aimed at increasing security in the semiautonomous southern region of the country as part of an effort to increase stability there prior to national elections scheduled for April. The disarmament campaigns, which require civilians and the military to give up small arms, are mandated by a 2005 peace agreement. But the financial and political weakness of southern Sudan’s government has led some observers to question its ability to carry out the campaigns successfully, in spite of assistance from the United Nations and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

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Iran Grants Reactor Access to IAEA

2009-09-04T12:23:00.000-04:00

Peter Crail

Iran last month accepted long-standing requests by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for greater access to two key nuclear facilities, diplomatic sources said in August. The move appears to represent a shift in Iran’s willingness to cooperate with the agency, which has expressed increasing concern with Tehran’s lack of transparency on certain activities.

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South Korea Attempts First Space Launch

2009-09-04T12:20:00.000-04:00

By Peter Crail

South Korea carried out its inaugural space launch attempt Aug. 25, seeking for the first time to place a satellite in orbit using its own rocket. South Korean officials described the launch as “partially successful,” as the on-board satellite overshot its intended orbit. South Korea is planning another attempt next year, Education and Science Minister Ahn Byong-man said at a press conference following the unsuccessful orbit.

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UN Adds North Korea to Sanctions List

2009-09-04T12:18:00.002-04:00

By Peter Crail

In a key step aimed at implementing a June sanctions resolution against North Korea, the UN Security Council blacklisted 10 North Korean organizations and individuals connected to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs July 16. Security Council Resolution 1874, passed June 12, directed council members to take steps toward identifying North Korean entities and persons that would be subject to the financial restrictions, asset freezes, and travel restrictions outlined in the resolution. (See ACT, July/August 2009.) The council adopted that measure in response to North Korea’s May 25 nuclear test, building on a 2006 sanctions resolution adopted in response to Pyongyang’s first nuclear test.

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India Launches First Nuclear Submarine

2009-09-04T12:14:00.000-04:00

By Peter Crail and Eben Lindsey

India launched its first nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine July 26, paving the way for initiating the third leg of its planned nuclear “triad.” The vessel, named the Arihant (Destroyer of Enemies) is the first nuclear-powered submarine of any type that India has developed and constitutes the first undersea-based component of New Delhi’s nuclear delivery capabilities. India is only the sixth country to develop a nuclear-powered submarine after the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, and China.

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India, U.S. Agree on Defense Trade Monitoring

2009-09-04T12:12:00.000-04:00

By Jeff Abramson and Daniel Horner

India and the United States have agreed on an end-use monitoring arrangement that will make it easier for India to acquire advanced U.S. defense equipment, External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna announced at a joint press appearance with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in New Delhi July 20.

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UK Revokes Arms Export Licenses to Israel

2009-09-04T12:09:00.000-04:00

By Rachel A. Weise

Following public outcry from British citizens and members of Parliament, the United Kingdom in July revoked five licenses for the export of arms components to Israel. The British decision could encourage other European Union (EU) members to review their current Israel export policy, a European Commission (EC) official said. According to a British government official, an EU working group will meet in Brussels Sept. 4 to discuss exports to Israel.

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Race Is On for New Head of OPCW

2009-09-04T12:06:00.000-04:00

By Oliver Meier

Seeking to avoid the rifts that marked its 2002 election of a director-general, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) member states are aiming to choose a new head at a meeting next month.

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UN Conventional Arms Register Falters

2009-09-04T12:03:00.000-04:00

By Jeff Abramson

A group of governmental experts examining a UN list of imports and exports of major conventional weapons has failed to agree to add an official category for small arms and light weapons to that annual record, sources familiar with the discussions said. The setback likely means that the UN Register of Conventional Arms will not see significant improvements in participation until after the next triennial meeting of experts in 2012.

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G-8 Tightens Nuclear Export Rules

2009-09-04T12:00:00.000-04:00

By Daniel Horner

The members of the Group of Eight (G-8) industrialized countries agreed to adopt new rules for sensitive nuclear exports, according to a statement released during the group’s July 8-10 summit in L’Aquila, Italy. Subsequent remarks by officials from some of the G-8 countries regarding trade with India, however, seem to be at odds with the G-8 statement.

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IAEA Budget Gets Modest Boost

2009-09-04T11:58:00.001-04:00

By Peter Crail

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors voted Aug. 3 for a rare hike in the agency’s budget, raising its 2010 budget to $453 million. That rise represents a 2.7 percent real increase above the 2009 budget, on top of a 2.7 percent increase to adjust for inflation. The 5.4 percent hike is half the 11 percent increase sought by IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei. A preliminary estimate for 2011 includes an 11.4 percent increase over the agency’s 2010 budget. That figure is first subject to consideration by a working group the board established to assess the agency’s resources, priorities, and budgets up to 2013.

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Nuclear Security Summit Planned for March

2009-09-04T11:54:00.000-04:00

By Daniel Horner

The United States will host a nuclear security summit in Washington next March, the White House announced July 8.

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Administration Pushes to Finish “New START”

2009-09-04T11:50:00.000-04:00

By Tom Z. Collina

U.S. and Russian negotiators are set to meet this month as part of an effort to wrap up negotiations by December on a new strategic arms reduction treaty with Russia, administration officials said recently.

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Pentagon Defends Planned Arms Cuts

2009-09-04T11:47:00.000-04:00

By Tom Z. Collina

Responding to criticism that the START follow-on treaty, or New START, should wait until the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is completed early next year, the Pentagon announced in August that the U.S. negotiating positions for New START had been cleared by the NPR interagency process.

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Veto Threat Spurs F-22 Cuts

2009-09-04T11:43:00.000-04:00

By Emma Ensign

Under a threat by President Barack Obama to use his veto power for the first time, Congress has taken steps to cut spending for additional F-22 fighter jets.

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Air Force Creates New Global Strike Command

2009-09-04T11:39:00.000-04:00

By Rachel A. Weise

Citing a lack of “clear lines of authority and responsibility” in its organizational structure, the U.S. Air Force last month announced it was establishing a new Global Strike Command to oversee all of its nuclear forces.

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Export Control Review Launched

2009-09-04T11:33:00.001-04:00

By Jeff Abramson

The White House last month announced it was launching a major review of the U.S. export control system, and the chairman of a key congressional committee said he hoped to introduce new legislation at the beginning of next year that would replace a central component of that system.

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Process for Nuclear Pacts Flawed, GAO Says

2009-09-04T10:54:00.000-04:00

by Daniel Horner

The process of preparing the government’s nonproliferation assessment for proposed nuclear cooperation agreements is flawed and should be improved through better interagency coordination and the adoption of written procedures, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said in a report released in late July.

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Toward a Nuclear Freeze in South Asia

2009-07-02T13:44:00.005-04:00

by Daryl G. Kimball

Ten years ago this month, tens of thousands of Indian and Pakistani soldiers faced off in a confrontation over the disputed Kashmir region. If not for intensive U.S.-led crisis diplomacy, that standoff and another in 2002 could have led to war between the two nuclear-armed rivals...

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Nuclear Security in Pakistan: Reducing the Risks of Nuclear Terrorism

2009-07-01T14:42:00.006-04:00

by Rolf Mowatt-Larssen

Today's frightening instability in Pakistan comes in a world in which global terrorists are actively seeking nuclear weapons and the materials and expertise needed to make them, a quest that has been underway for more than a decade. Rapid action is needed to keep the Taliban's advances in Pakistan from creating new opportunities for these deadly adversaries.

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Nuclear Security in Pakistan: Separating Myth From Reality

2009-07-01T14:41:00.000-04:00

by Feroz Hassan Khan

Pakistan is passing through an extremely delicate phase in its history. Recent instability in Pakistan, including the Taliban's advance into settled areas, prompted the Pakistani military to undertake large-scale military operations in the Swat Valley. As military and Taliban forces fight in the rugged tribal terrain, several Western analysts have raised concerns about the future of nuclear Pakistan.

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Ending North Korea’s Nuclear Ambitions: The Need for Stronger Chinese Action

2009-07-01T14:40:00.004-04:00

by Hui Zhang

North Korea has recently taken a series of provocative steps to challenge the international community. These steps include test-launching a long-range rocket, walking away from the six-party talks and all disarmament agreements, kicking out international inspectors from its nuclear facilities, conducting an underground nuclear test May 25-a more powerful blast than the one conducted in 2006-testing a half-dozen short-range missiles, and announcing it had resumed plutonium production and started a program to enrich uranium. Pyongyang reportedly also is preparing a long-range missile test and a third nuclear test. If unchecked, North Korea will surely increase the quantity and quality of its arsenal. Even worse, once Pyongyang has more than enough weapons for its deterrent, it might be tempted to sell the surplus. The longer the crisis lasts, the more nuclear capable North Korea will become and the more difficult it will be to roll back Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions.

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Looking Back: The National Missile Defense Act of 1999

2009-07-01T14:39:00.002-04:00

by Greg Thielmann

The National Missile Defense Act of 1999 was described by its chief sponsor, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.), as "the necessary first step to protecting the United States from long-range ballistic missile attack." Indeed, the act constituted an important milestone on the road to U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002, a step that the sponsors of the act advocated. Although the act itself neither authorized any programs nor appropriated any funds, it was misrepresented then and has been misrepresented since as proof of strong congressional support for the urgent and unqualified pursuit of strategic missile defenses.

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Russia, U.S. Lag on Chemical Arms Deadline

2009-07-01T14:37:00.001-04:00

by Rachel A. Weise

The likely failure of Russia and the United States, the holders of the world's largest stockpiles of chemical weapons, to meet a key treaty deadline for destroying their stocks is prompting varying responses from experts. In recent public statements and interviews, officials involved in the process emphasized the progress and commitment of the two countries, while independent experts expressed concern about the effect of the missed deadline on the nonproliferation regime.

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Accord on New Rules Eludes Nuclear Suppliers

2009-07-01T14:36:00.007-04:00

by Daniel Horner

Nuclear supplier countries last month ended their annual plenary meeting without agreeing on new rules for exports related to uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing.

In a June 12 statement issued at the close of a meeting in Budapest, the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) said its members had "agreed to continue to work to strengthen" the group's guidelines in that area. Equipment and technology related to enrichment and reprocessing are considered to be particularly sensitive types of nuclear exports because those processes can produce material that is usable in a nuclear weapon.

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UN Tightens North Korea Sanctions

2009-07-01T14:35:00.000-04:00

by Peter Crail

The UN Security Council last month broadly expanded sanctions and counterproliferation measures against North Korea in response to that country's May 25 nuclear test.
Resolution 1874, which the council unanimously adopted June 12, builds on the measures the council took in 2006 when it adopted Resolution 1718 in response to North Korea's first nuclear test.

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S. Korean Pyroprocessing Awaits U.S. Decision

2009-07-01T14:34:00.002-04:00

by Daniel Horner

The Obama administration appears likely to make a decision that could complicate potential South Korean pursuit of a controversial spent fuel treatment process known as pyroprocessing, according to comments by current and former U.S. officials.

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GAO Finds Gap in U.S. Export Controls

2009-07-01T14:33:00.005-04:00

by Emma Ensign

Sensitive dual-use and military technology can be easily and legally purchased within the United States and illegally exported without detection, according to a report issued by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) last month.

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MDA Tests Laser Amid Budget Cutbacks

2009-07-01T14:33:00.004-04:00

by Eben W. Lindsey

The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency (MDA) last month successfully tested the tracking components of the Airborne Laser (ABL) system, the agency announced June 15. The tests, which took place June 6 and June 13, mark the first time the ABL system successfully detected and tracked a missile in the boost phase. These tests come amid a series of decisions reducing or eliminating the funding for some missile defense programs.

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Obama Arms Control Team Fills Out

2009-07-01T14:32:00.001-04:00

by Eben W. Lindsey

our months after Inauguration Day, President Barack Obama's arms control and nonproliferation team is taking shape.

One important position was filled late last month when the Senate approved the nomination of Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) as undersecretary of state for arms control and international security. Tauscher, whose congressional district contains two national laboratories, has focused on arms control and nonproliferation issues throughout her career. As chair of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, she has worked in Congress to strengthen nonproliferation programs and pushed for greater oversight of the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency. At her June 9 confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, she expressed her commitment to Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons and indicated that arms reductions by the United States would help the U.S. government promote its nonproliferation goals.

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IAEA Finds Uranium at Second Syrian Site

2009-07-01T14:29:00.002-04:00

by Peter Crail

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have discovered traces of an undeclared form of uranium at a second Syrian site, according to a June 5 IAEA report. The find adds further questions to a year-long IAEA inquiry into allegations that Syria had secretly pursued nuclear weapons.

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U.S. Still Committed to Engaging Iran

2009-07-01T14:28:00.002-04:00

by Peter Crail

Responding to postelection turmoil in Iran and accusations of voting fraud in favor of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Washington has reaffirmed its intention to pursue a dialogue with Tehran regarding its nuclear program.

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Russia Vetoes UN Mission in Georgia

2009-07-01T14:22:00.002-04:00

by Cole Harvey

Russia voted against extending the mandate of the United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) in the Security Council June 15, scuttling a last-minute effort to renew the mission's mandate and dealing another blow to the already strained Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty.

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Testing the World's Patience

2009-06-04T16:32:00.001-04:00

by Daryl G. Kimball

North Korea's second and the world's 2,052nd nuclear weapon test explosion represents yet another low in the long-running multilateral diplomatic effort to freeze and verifiably dismantle Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities. Pyongyang's test blast is also a stark reminder of the need to finally bring about a permanent, global test ban.

Coming just two years after North Korea agreed to refreeze its plutonium separation operations and disable some of its key nuclear facilities in accordance with the 2005 Six-Party denuclearization agreement, North Korea's estimated 2-4 kiloton test blast, missile launches, and renewal of plutonium separation are reckless and exasperating.

But we've seen this behavior before. In each of the past three major nuclear-related crises in 1994, 2002, and 2006 - when Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test - North Korea has raised the stakes with provocative actions. Each time, U.S.-led diplomacy, backed by sanctions, has led to agreements involving food aid, fuel, and offers of normalized relations in exchange for verifiable constraints on Pyongyang's nuclear program.

Since there is no viable or prudent pre-emptive strike option and punitive sanctions alone cannot stop North Korea's nuclear and missile buildup, the latest crisis requires a renewed diplomatic push, led by Washington, combined with the implementation of more effective economic, military, and political sanctions that have the full support of North Korea's main trading partner, China.

Containing the North Korean nuclear threat will likely be even more difficult this time around. Kim Jong Il's poor health and an opaque succession process probably mean that North Korea's leadership will be reluctant to return to the path of verifiable disarmament for a year or more.

For now, North Korea possesses fissile material for fewer than a dozen bombs. It is not yet capable of delivering working nuclear warheads on long-range ballistic missiles. Such a threat is still deterrable without the United States or other countries resorting to nuclear weapons threats.

But if left unchecked, North Korea can and will separate more plutonium (at a rate of about one bomb per year), and conduct more nuclear tests. If desperate enough, it could sell some of its fissile material to third parties. Over time, Japan and South Korea might reconsider their nuclear options, which would lead to even more instability and the unraveling of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

So far, the Obama administration, which had hardly begun to re-engage Pyongyang following last year's impasse over the verification of North Korea's denuclearization, has promised that North Korea will "pay a price" for its defiance. Diplomats have been deployed to reassure allies in the region. International condemnation has been strong, swift, and universal. The UN Security Council will likely call for enhancing the implementation of the sanctions authorized by Resolution 1718.

But history shows that punitive sanctions and stern lectures will not by themselves halt North Korea's nuclear activities or force the collapse of the already-isolated regime. As he has done with his policy toward Iran, Obama must reject the false ideology that dialogue with adversaries is a reward for bad behavior. Rather than waiting in vain for North Korea to return to the Six-Party negotiating table while it improves its nuclear and missile capabilities, Obama should authorize official and non-official direct talks with senior North Korean officials to gather facts, and resolve differences regarding the implementation of the Six-Party agreement.

Most importantly, such talks are needed not only to clarify the costs of further defiance, but also to highlight the benefits of cooperation. The United States must outline, again and in detail, the security assurances, trade benefits, and energy support that the U.S. and other regional allies would be prepared to provide if North Korea once again halted its nuclear and missile programs, ended its proliferation behavior, and dismantled its nuclear complex.

China must also step up and exert its diplomatic and economic influence to rein in the North's provocative behavior. Beijing's leaders should be more concerned about the prospect of a nuclear-armed North Korea triggering a full-blown East Asian arms race than the possibility that tighter sanctions might lead to a refugee crisis. China, which accounts for 73 percent of North Korea's international trade, must do its part by helping to shut down trade in military items, and luxury items, and joining others in using financial sanctions to shut down entities involved in Pyongyang's missile and nuclear programs.

Without bold U.S. and Chinese diplomatic leadership to contain proliferation in North Koreas well as steps that would strengthen the global nonproliferation system - including ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and negotiation of a global fissile material production cutoff - Pyongyang's test may become a nuclear proliferation tipping point.

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Lots of Hedging, Little Leading: An Analysis of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission Report

2009-06-04T16:07:00.002-04:00

by Hans M. Kristensen and Ivan Oelrich

Among the flood of security policy reports issued in recent months, one of the most
anticipated has been the one from the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture
of the United States.1 The panel, which Congress established last year, is a bipartisan, 12-member group of policy veterans, headed by former Secretaries of Defense William Perry, the commission’s chairman, and James Schlesinger, the vice chairman.

The report, released May 6, is supposed to help guide the Obama administration’s Nuclear
Posture Review (NPR), which is scheduled to be completed within the next year.

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Toward a Legally Binding Arms Trade Treaty: An Interview with British Minister of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs Bill Rammell

2009-06-04T16:06:00.011-04:00

Bill Rammell serves as minister of state for foreign and commonwealth affairs in the United Kingdom. His responsibilities encompass the Middle East, including Iraq and Iran; counterterrorism; counterproliferation; the Far East and Southeast Asia; North America; drugs and international crime; and migration policy. Arms Control Today met with Rammell May 5 to discuss the United Kingdom’s efforts on an arms trade treaty and other international arms control issues.

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Enhanced Prospects for 2010: An Analysis of the Third PrepCom and the Outlook for the 2010 NPT Review Conference

2009-06-04T16:06:00.009-04:00

by Rebecca Johnson

The just-concluded third Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference has been heralded as a much needed
success story, with much of the credit given to the Obama administration’s more positive
approach to multilateral diplomacy and arms control.

In the most constructive and collegial atmosphere seen in an NPT meeting since 2002, the agenda and all significant procedural decisions for 2010 were adopted expeditiously in the first week of the May 4-15 meeting in New York. Barring any unforeseen and dramatic deterioration in relations, there is an excellent chance that next year’s review conference will be able to open smoothly and get down to work without the kind of frustrating procedural delays that marred the 2005 NPT Review Conference.1 Although the PrepCom was not able to agree on substantive recommendations to transmit to the review conference, the negotiations on the chair’s three successive drafts established a useful framework for forward-looking recommendations to be negotiated in 2010 and provided a reality check on the commitments that different states will seek to include in or exclude from the documents that emerge from next year’s conference.

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BOOK REVIEW: Facing the Reality of the Bomb

2009-06-04T16:05:00.003-04:00

by Barclay Ward

Better Safe Than Sorry: The Ironies of Living with the Bomb

By Michael Krepon

Stanford University Press, 2009, 270 pp.

President Barack Obama's enlightened statement April 5 in Prague on the future of nuclear weapons raised the possibility that we are at a turning point in our long life with the atomic bomb. What we do now will depend a great deal on how much we have learned over these years. One of the uniquely important aspects of Michael Krepon's excellent book is that, among other things, it is a book about learning and forgetting.

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In Memoriam: Herbert York

2009-06-04T16:02:00.002-04:00

by Katherine Magraw

Herbert York, who began his career as a Manhattan Project nuclear physicist and later became a champion of arms control, died May 19. He was 87.

Recruited for the Manhattan Project before he was 21, York's career in weapons research and technology advanced rapidly. He was the first director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, holding that post from 1952 to 1958. He also was the co-founder and first chief scientist of the Advanced Research Projects Agency, now the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, in 1958 and a member of the first President's Science Advisory Committee from 1958 to 1961.

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N. Korean Nuclear Test Prompts Global Rebuke

2009-06-04T15:59:00.002-04:00

by Peter Crail

North Korea conducted its second nuclear test May 25, prompting international condemnation for violating UN demands and raising tensions in the region. The test comes a month after North Korea declared that it would no longer participate in multilateral talks on its denuclearization and would carry out nuclear and missile tests to strengthen its deterrent capability. (See ACT, May 2009.) After the test, Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) struck a similar note, saying the blast was "part of the measures to bolster up [North Korea's] nuclear deterrent for self-defense."

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Progress Seen in Iranian Missile Test

2009-06-04T15:58:00.004-04:00

by Peter Crail

Iran carried out its first successful flight test of a two-stage solid-fuel ballistic missile May 20, demonstrating increasing sophistication with its medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), U.S. officials and technical experts said.

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Pakistani Nuclear Stocks Safe, Officials Say

2009-06-04T15:58:00.003-04:00

by Peter Crail

Pakistani and U.S. officials have sought to allay increasing concerns in recent months that instability in Pakistan might threaten the security of Islamabad's nuclear weapons. Pakistani security forces have been engaged in open conflict with militant factions that now control large areas of the country's northwestern territories.

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U.S., UAE Sign New Nuclear Cooperation Pact

2009-06-04T15:57:00.004-04:00

by Daniel Horner

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United States signed a new version of their nuclear cooperation agreement May 21, signaling President Barack Obama's support for a pact that boosters have portrayed as a model for the development of nuclear energy in the Middle East but that critics have said does not go far enough in that regard.

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Congress Weighs Iran Sanctions, Diplomacy

2009-06-04T15:57:00.003-04:00

by Peter Crail

Congressional committee leaders are prepared to delay consideration of new legislation intended to stiffen existing sanctions aimed at Iran's energy sector in order to allow time for the Obama administration's diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue to make progress, according to public and private statements from Capitol Hill.

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Nonproliferation Budget Sees Some Hikes

2009-06-04T15:55:00.002-04:00

by Cole Harvey and Daniel Horner

The Obama administration is asking Congress for significant funding increases in programs designed to secure nuclear material in Russia and detect radioactive material passing through the world's busiest ports, according to budget documents released in May.

But the proposed budget would also reduce funding for some other nonproliferation initiatives, including the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program. The request partially reflects President Barack Obama's pledge, made during his April 5 speech in Prague, to "set new standards, expand our cooperation with Russia, [and] pursue new partnerships" in order to "secure all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years." However, Thomas D'Agostino, who heads the Department of Energy's semiautonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), said in congressional testimony that the fiscal year 2010 budget request is not fully representative of the president's four-year plan because budget planning for that fiscal year already was well under way when Obama took office and spelled out his goals to the NNSA. Fiscal year 2010 begins Oct. 1, 2009.

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